The Myth of “Record Runs” Debunked. Part 1: Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook

( Editors Note: Data comes from two primary sources: the Fish Passage Center and http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/publications/techmemos/tm35/chapters/14uppercol.htm)

Salmon generally make the news in one of two ways.   Either the media reports on a restoration project or a collapse in stock abundance.  In either case, there is sometimes talk of “record runs.”  The use of the term “record run” drives me crazy because it is misleading and could easily be misunderstood to mean the largest run ever for a particular stock.

An elected official or a media figure talks about a “record run” and it seems that all is well in the world, trends are cyclical and a downturn only represents a departure from a recently established historic record.  Hogwash.

When reporting  on the collapse of Central Valley California chinook stocks numerous media outlets compared the projected run to a “record run” of 800,000 + chinook that returned to the region in 2001.   While I am not very familiar with the Sacramento River, I can say with 100% certainty that 800,000 fish was not a “record run” in any meaningful sense of the word.  In Oregon, we too rejoiced over a “record run” in 2001, ours a run of spring/summer chinook returning to the Snake River.  The problem?  The run did not approach average historic abundance let alone qualify as a record.

So what does “record run” mean? In the case of the Snake, it means only the highest recorded run since records were kept beginning in 1975.  Historically, the Snake was the largest producer of spring and summer chinook in the Columbia Basin.  Prior to Euro-american overexploitation, annual returns to the Snake and its tributaries above where Lower Granite dam stands today averaged approximately 1.5 million fish–sometimes more, sometimes less. 

Here is a bar graph that illustrates the discrepancy between average historic abundance and the “record run.”  The graph demonstrates the collapse of the Snake River stock of Spring/Summer Chinook above Lower Granite Dam:

Data Source: Fish Passage Center

Here is a line graph that shows the size of the annual run of spring/summer chinookin the period between 1975 and 2006.  It also shows the historic average (the blue line near the top of the graph): 

Data Source: Fish Passage Center

As you can see, the “record run” of 2001 did not approach average historic abundance.  In fact, the “record run” was not even 20% of average historic numbers. 

It is also important to note that the historic run  was 100% natural origin fish.  The “record run” was made up of a mix of hatchery and natural origin fish.  The decline in productivity is even more shocking when viewed on a graph illustrating historic natural production against average production (hatchery and natural) and natural origin estimated or actual as noted in the legend.

(The High Estimate of Average Natural production was extrapolated using NOAA’s estimate of native origin fish as a percentage in the basin, 39%, and multiplying that by the average run size.  The same “high” percentage was used when estimating the size of the native run in 2006.  I believe that 39% is a “high” figure because in1994, for example, naturally produced chinook accounted for only 6.5% of spring/summer chinook in the basin.)

On August 22, 2003 George Bush spoke at Ice Harbor Dam.  In addition to making the following ludicrous statement “I know that the human being and the fish can coexist peacefully,” the President also proclaimed that federal salmon recovery efforts in the basin were paying dividends and that the Snake River dams would stand forever.  On that day, the reservoir temperature behind Ice Harbor dam was 71.1 degrees (3.1 degrees over the Clean Water Act Standard and a lethal temperature for salmon). What has happened since this proclamation?  The stocks have declined (of course):

This graph does not segregate native origin fish from hatchery origin fish.  Natural origin fish apparently average 39% of the total productivity in the basin (though in 1994 they were only 6.5% of the total run).

We have only one record in the Snake River basin: a record of failure.